September 4, 2009

Understanding Speculation And Impacts On Investment Returns

Investments are also made on the basis of speculation. Investments are called speculative investment when the investor does not analyze and assess the financial asset before investment is made. Often investors are not interested in long term investment but on short term change in price. The fluctuation of prices over a short term is the primary factor in speculative investment. These short term fluctuations may not actually reflect the real value of the asset. Banking on these fluctuations is both risky and distorts the real nature of the asset.

Speculation can be beneficial as well as harmful. When a produce is in short supply and the demand high, the speculator invests in buying the produce with the hope that the increased short supply will drive up the price. The positive part is that the produce will last longer. The negative impact is that the increase in price and the short supply will exclude a section of the consumers. The speculation can also lead to hoarding of the produce that can induce an artificial scarcity denying consumers access to the produce. The higher price also gives incentive to the producer to produce more or import the produce.

Increased demand and higher price is a result of speculative buying. Similarly, the price is made to fall artificially with speculative selling which can lead to the price falling below its actual value. Often speculative buying shows up as a continuous rise in the price with more prospects of increased price. This is attractive to speculators who continue to buy more hoping to make a windfall of a profit at a later date. This speculative buying spree could reach a point when the speculators loses confidence and begins to sell. A selling spree can rapidly crash its price leading what has come to be popularly called ‘bubble burst’. Speculation is high in the foreign exchange market, a major economic activity. There are a number of useful learning tools that can assist anyone to learn about the forex market such as Learn Forex Live, Forex Trading Made E-Z, the London Forex Rush System and Forex Breakouts.

Increased speculative investment leads to short term volatility of the market that results in unstable price. The leads to a bubble that soon swells up beyond control and bursts. Such economic bubbles and bubble bursts too have been frequent in recent times. Increased bubble bursts do impact the larger economy creating an economic melt down. There is an increasing demand to control and regulate speculation. Suggestions ranging from a ban on speculation to ban on speculation in certain commodities such as oil to levying a penalty on speculation have been suggested. Tobin Tax, named after the economist James Tobin, has been suggested as a tax levied at 1 percent or lower.

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